Now Updated for the 2007 season!
Rookies are hard to peg in fantasy football since they come out of college with so much talent, but often it takes them awhile to develop into good fantasy players. Of all positions wide receivers are the hardest group to peg since it often takes them 3 or 4 years before they develop. Rookies have even more fantasy relevance to those of you who play in keeper leagues, and are looking to build for the future.
We've examined this year's group pretty thoroughly and here's our synopsis....
Of all the rookies, there are three that stand out as being significant contributors for this season. We like Marshawn Lynch (RB) of Buffalo, Calvin Johnson (WR) of Detroit, and Greg Olsen (TE) of the Bears to have the most value. Marshawn Lynch is in a situation in Buffalo where he should be able to beat out Anthony Thomas in training camp and get significant playing time right off of the bat. Calvin Johnson is such a good athlete that he should be able to step in and put up up good numbers even if he is a rookie WR. It certainly helps that the Lion's offense is so pass oriented under Mike Martz' air-it-out offense. Olsen is a tight end, so his contribution shouldn't be dramatic, but the league needs more TE's that can put up numbers like a wide receiver and Olsen offers that potential a-la a Jeremy Shockey or Kellen Winslow type. Even as a rookie he should have a lot of catches in the Bears offense that desperately needs a new receiving option.
We haven't mentioned Adrian Peterson yet. That's only because he'll be sharing a chunk of carries with Chester Taylor for a while, so Peterson's value is much higher for keeper leagues when he should become an undisputed starter within another season or two (at the latest). Still even with sharing carries, his talent is incredible and he'll have some nice games in 2007.
The rest of the rookie WR's are a crapshoot. Several of them have potential to have nice rookie seasons, but We don't see any of them turning into starting quality fantasy players quickly. Of all the rookie WR's Dwayne Bowe of Kansas City steps into the best situation. Kansas City is DESPERATE for WR help and their quarterback situation is good enough that he should have a decent season for a rookie. But even then he'd probably only be a #4 WR on your fantasy football roster.
Jamarcus Russel (QB) OAK
Don't even consider drafting Russell for this season unless you play in a keeper league, and even then it looks like it will take some time before he becomes a quality fantasy QB. He's missed a lot of training camp and is stepping into an awful situation in Oakland. That offense is a mess, and while Lane Kiffin should do a good job of getting them on the right track, there's no telling when they'll turn around or when Russell will be ready to start games. Our advice, if you have a keeper league, then take a chance on him if you have roster room, after you've picked up another rookie player that should contribute quicker.
John Beck (QB) MIA
Beck is stepping into a great situation in Miami. He was an extremely productive QB in college and played for an offense that is similar to an NFL style. Of all the rookie QB's he's as ready as any of them to start quickly in the NFL, however, "quickly" for an NFL rookie QB is usually a season after their arrival. But the scenario is for Beck to learn from veterans Trent Green and Cleo Lemon first before he gets a chance to start. Beck could start games in '07 if Green gets injured and Lemon plays like....well a lemon. Either way, Beck is nothing more than a waiver wire pickup once the season starts in case he gets thrust into a starting role, even then his value is likely nada mucho. Keep an eye on him and we'll keep you posted.
Brady Quinn (QB) CLE - Higher value for keeper leagues
Quinn is clearly the future QB for the Cleveland franchise, and he'll almost certainly start some games for Cleveland this season. When he does he'll take over a much improved offense with good WR's and a decent running game. We quietly feel that Cleveland's offense will surprise some people. Braylon Edwards and and a healthy Joe Jurivicous along with an improved and re-motivated Jamal Lewis are decent tools to work with. Hopefully the offensive line is improved as well. Currently Quinn is behind Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye on the playing time pecking order, but we feel by mid-season or earlier Quinn will take over. Since neither Frye or Anderson have shown too much. Of all the rookie QB's, Quinn is the most NFL ready specimen of the bunch.
Bottom line, he's got decent value for keeper leagues if you can afford to wait until next season for him to develop, otherwise he's a waiver wire pickup after he gets to be a starter part way through this season.
Marshawn Lynch (RB) BUF - Must have for keeper leagues
Keeper league or not, this guy is worth drafting for 2007. He'd make a great #3 fantasy RB this season, and with luck could be a great #2 RB for your roster. Of all rookies in 2007 this is the guy to get since he should get the most playing time right off of the bat and step into Buffalo's offense as their main back. Buffalo is acting like they really intend to use Anthony Thomas for a while, but we're not buying it. Anthony Thomas has been a bust for several teams now, and is a slow, straight ahead power runner, without any moves or "shake". Lynch, meanwhile is the opposite.
Lynch should get at least 300 carries and could get a number of receptions as well. Buffalo has fine-tuned their offensive line and desperately wants to establish a good running game, so Lynch is coming into a great situation. We see him as a solid pick early in the 4th round of your fantasy draft. Of course he's worth more than that in keeper leagues.
Adrian Peterson (RB) MIN - Must have for keeper leagues
Talent-wise he's the most talented all around RB to come into the draft in perhaps three or four seasons. He'll also get plenty of action for the Vikings as a rookie, however, the fact that he'll be sharing carries with Chester Taylor really dampens the enthusiasm. Of course if something were to happen to Taylor, Peterson's value would skyrocket. For now his value appears to be that of an early pick in the 5th round. By then hopefully, you'll only be looking for a #3 RB, since it would be way to risky to try to use him as your #2 RB this season. He should be more of a contributor later in the season than at the beginning.
Brandon Jackson (RB) GB - worth taking a good shot with in keeper leagues
It will be a battle for the starting job in Green Bay between veteran Vernand Morency and rookie Brandon Jackson. Morency will almost certainly get the bulk of the work early, but expect Jackson (a 1st round pick this season) to get plenty of work. The problem with Jackson (other than splitting playing time) is that there are lots of doubts whether or not he's big enough or tough enough to take a heavy load of pounding on the NFL level. We'll see. Best case would be that he impresses early with some highlights and gets handed a big share of the workload. But Vernand Morency appears to have enough talent to make this a RB-by-committee approach that we prefer to avoid.
While this guy can cut like a Mach 3 razor, and has serious speed, our advice is that unless you play in a keeper league, don't make it a priority to draft this guy this season. He's projected to go in the middle of the 7th or 8th round in your fantasy draft, and even that's higher than we'd want to take a chance with on a guy who probably won't be starting for a while.
Michael Bush (RB) OAK
If you're not a big college football fan, and not familiar with Bush's career. He was on pace to be a high 1st round draft pick before a nasty broken leg sidetracked his college career. Oakland picked him up in the 4th round and if Bush can return to form, he could eventually emerge as a nice RB in the NFL, but that's a while down the road. This season he'll be competing with the disappointing Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes. While neither of those guys are Barry Saunders or Thurman Thomas we're talking about, they are talented NFL veterans that will take a while for Bush to beat out.
Our advice, don't draft him this season, but keep an eye on him to pick up on the waiver wire if it appears he'll be getting some playing time.
Chris Henry (RB) TEN
You never know what could happen in Tennessee. Their backfield is by no means set. Chris Brown will probably be the starter this season, and Lendale White will be hanging around in some sort of undefined role yet to be seen, so Henry has some competition. On the good side, however, this is competition that he could easily emerge from as the starter in their offense!
Keep a close eye on developments in the pre-season, if he plays well and looks to win the starting job, his value shoots up to about a 4th or 5th round pick. Otherwise, look for him towards the end of your fantasy draft as a guy to chance on.
Calvin Johnson (WR) DET - Absolute must have for keeper leagues
Johnson should be the first rookie WR to put up 1,000 yards in many years (Randy Moss?). Unlike most rookie WR's this guy comes ready to start, and steps into an awesome offense for a receiver. His huge size should make him a red-zone magnet. Pretty soon we should see him towards the top of fantasy football draft boards with guys like Torry Holt, T.O., and Chad Johnson. And it won't take long.
Currently he's going around the 5th round of most fantasy football mock drafts, but we wouldn't back off from picking him up a bit earlier just based on his potential. Rookie or not we feel he'll have a good season.
Dwayne Bowe (WR) KC
While we are excited by Bowe's potential, there is a massive dropoff in fantasy value between Calvin Johnson and the rest of the rookie WR's for this season. Like most rookie receivers, it will probably take Bowe at least three seasons before he starts to establish himself, but since KC is so talent starved at WR, they could wind up giving him some serious playing time quickly. Eddie Kennison is old and one-dimensional, and Sammy Parker has the ability to start 16 games and have nobody even notice he's on the field. So by default we expect to see Bowe heavily involved in '07.
In most 16 round mock drafts, Bowe isn't even being drafted, so don't draft him unless you really like the guy and want to take a chance on him with the last pick in your draft. Our advice would be to wait until the season starts and snag him off the waiver wire if he starts to catch on in KC.
Dwayne Jarrett (WR) CAR
Like Bowe, Jarrett is stepping into a situation where he'll get lots of playing time right off of the bat. In fact Dwayne Jarrett is a bit of a better prospect than Dwayne Bowe is for this season. Jarrett seems more ready for the NFL and the Panthers are also starving for a 2nd WR to compliment Steve Smith. Jarrett is a big guy with decent speed and impressive strength. Jarrett is capable of big plays and should have some nice rookie highlights. He's going towards the end of the 14th round in recent mock drafts, and that's about where we feel it's justified taking him.
Even with all Jarrett's talent he's still playing for an offense that is primarily a running offense and already has an established WR in Steve Smith.
Antony Gonzales (WR) IND
Everybody is excited about the potential of this speedy guy to work out of the slot in the Colts offense, and we feel he'll be a great fit. But remember, he'll still be the 3rd WR in that offense. Brandon Stoakley had a career year working out of Indy's slot a few seasons ago getting over 1,000 yards and about 10 TD's, but those numbers are unlikely for Gonzales in his rookie season.
He'd make an intriguing #4 fantasy WR on your roster this season, and certainly has the potential to put up nice numbers. He's been going around round 13 of most mock drafts.
Tedd Ginn, JR. (WR) MIA
Man was it funny or what to listen to all the fans booing the Dolphins brass when they bypassed Brady Quinn to draft Ginn. While the Dolphins had more glaring needs (like QB or offensive linemen), they fell in love with the potential that Ginn could add by stretching their offense and running back kicks on special teams. And really, it wasn't a bad pick. Since this guys has got scorching speed! The Dolphins see him as a Devin Hester type game changer on special teams.
While we feel that Ginn will give us some amazing highlights this season, we don't expect for him to be a big fantasy contributor to your team unless you play in a weird league that awards points for players based on special teams returns. The presence of veterans Chris Chambers and Marty Booker should keep Ginn's numbers modest in 2007. It's also worth noting that Ginn has a very slender frame that could cause him difficulty beating press coverage off of the line of scrimmage, and he's also a one-dimensional vertical threat. Take a chance with him in the 15th round of your draft if you like his potential.
Sidney Rice (WR) MIN
Rice is another WR that should waltz right into significant playing time in Minnesota since their starting WR's are horrendous and they desperately need someone with a pulse to step up in that offense. But with the prospect of Tarvaris Jackson cutting his teeth in the NFL, it shouldn't be an exciting season for the Vikings passing attack, and although Rice has excellent skills, he's a guy that will likely take three full years before turning into a good fantasy option. He's not worth drafting this season, but worth keeping an eye on as a free agent if he picks things up quickly.
Robert Meachem (WR) NO
Meachem's another great talent that the Saints liked enough to burn a 2nd round draft pick on even though WR wasn't their areas of need. However, Meachem will be battling Devery Henderson for playing time and Henderson will likely win the #2 spot in that offense. That leaves Meachem to challenge for the #3 spot with Terrance Copper. Most likely Meachem will be brought along slowly into the NFL and won't contribute much this season.
Greg Olsen (TE) CHI - A guy to grab for keeper leagues that use TE's
Big target, runs like a WR and comes into an offense that uses the TE extensively and is desperate for another receiving option. We like Olse to put up solid numbers as a rookie TE. But if you look at our draft list we still like the chances for about 10 other TE's to have better seasons that Olsen probably will. So while he's a great prospect and a decent TE to have this season, there are a lot of other guys to take first. We see him as late round prospect for your draft.
Zach Miller (TE) OAK
Miller appears to be a good future prospect, and should get good opportunities for playing time as a rookie. However, there are too many other decent options at TE that you should take as your #1 TE before you draft a prospect like Miller. We don't recommend drafting more than 1 TE during your fantasy draft, however, if you do wish to draft 2 TE's then Miller would be a decent guy to take with as your #2 TE at the end of your fantasy draft. Remember, Oakland's offense shouldn't be anything special this season, although Miller has potential to turn into a top TE in this league.