Every year fantasy football seasons are won and lost by the amount of sleepers and busts that are on your roster. While it isn't possible to predict every sleeper or bust out there, we can give you our tips on the likely "studs & duds" of the 2007 season.
Before we begin with our sleeper list, we suppose it would be wise to explain what we consider a sleeper pick to be. A sleeper isn't a player that's guaranteed to be a stud. Everybody can see that the Peyton Manning's, LT's, Steven Jacksons, Torry Holts, Steve Smith's etc. are going to be good. Or even players projected to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds really aren't a surprise to anyone, in fact they're expected to the cornerstones of your fantasy team. Instead sleepers are players that you can pick up deeper in the draft, rounds five, six, seven, and even at the end of the draft, that can really help your team, and be an absolute bargain of a player from where they were drafted at. Similar to sleepers are players that we have pegged as "value picks". A value pick is a player that is expected to go pretty early in your draft, but they still might be a bargain since they'll perform at a level that's almost equal to the studs drafted even earlier without the need to mortgage your draft to take them. For example a value pick that we like almost every season (this year included) is a guy like Marc Bulger. Bulger will certainly go by round 4 of your draft (assuming a 12 team league), but he's nearly as reliable a prospect as the Tom Brady's, Carson Palmers, and Drew Brees' that are expected to go off the board a round before him. So there you have it.
One more thing, you'll see we make lots of references to where players are going in recent mock drafts. Please note that our references to average mock draft position assume a 12 team fantasy league with a standard scoring system that awards for both yardage and scoring.
Marc Bulger (QB) STL
As we mentioned, Bulger isn't really a sleeper, but he is a great value pick in the early part of your draft. He's got good weapons around him, and almost always puts up nice numbers. Even with the "toning down" of the St. Louis offense and re-emphasis on the running game, Bulger will still throw for nice yardage and TD's. Sure Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Carson Palmer are deservedly ranked ahead of Bulger, but towards the end of the 4th round you can't go wrong with him.
1st Sleeper, Mr. Tony Romo (QB) DAL
There's been a lot of speculation as to which Tony Romo will show up in 2007. The efficient and productive QB that started the season in '06, or the impatient and mistake prone version that finished the season. However we've seen enough of Romo that we're convinced he'll be very good again in 2007. With some experience under his belt and a decent offense around him Tony should put up numbers like a good fantasy starter QB even though you can grab him at a relatively cheap price in rounds 5 or 6 in your fantasy draft. He should produce both good yardage stats as well as a healthy amount of TD's.
mid draft Value Pick Phillip Rivers (QB) SD
We were tempted to put Jay Cutler in this spot, but after considering things. We feel you'd be much better off taking Phillip Rivers off the board in about round 7, rather than waiting one more round and gambling a bit on Cutler (in mock drafts Rivers is going at about the 4th pick in the 7th round vs. Cutler going around the 4th pick of round 8). The value that Rivers offers is much better. He's much more polished and experienced. And although San Diego will still depend heavily on LT's legs to grind out wins, Rivers will put up very nice numbers for a #2 fantasy QB, and really not bad for a starting fantasy player. waiting another round to pick up a player like Cutler would be a bit costly when more reliable commodities exist.
Matt Leinart (QB) ARZ
Later in your draft, after you've already taken your starting QB, don't be afraid to gamble a bit on your choice for a backup. If you're in the mood for a gamble, we like Matt Leinart's chances for a successful sophomore season. With more confidence, and a lock on the starting job, he'll have an improved coach and improved offense to work with. Stud WR's like Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are never a bad thing either. Sure, we may have all heard how much Arizona wants to establish a power running game this season, but Arizona will be playing catch-up from behind again, and Leinart has shown himself as a very capable and talented QB with a big-time arm. He could consistently put up about 250 yards per game.
Late draft Value pick...Trent Green (QB) MIA
Sure Miami's been a mess the past couple of seasons. But their new coaching staff is a drastic improvement over what it's been for the past few years (Dave Wannedstadt and Nick Saban were horrendous). And the new direction that Miami is taking is encouraging. While Trent Green is past his prime, and is injury prone he will pleasantly surprise people by turning in a decent season (assuming he avoids another concussion). And while were not talking about really exciting numbers or anything, he'll make a very serviceable fantasy backup that will help your team if you're starting fantasy QB goes south. He's been going around rounds 13 to 15 of many fantasy drafts, so he's a very low risk "garbage" aquisition late in your draft. Also consider he's got a very good RB, and quite good and under-rated WR's around him. Hey, if we're wrong, it won't cost you much.
Cadillac Williams (RB) TB
Don't be scared away by his terrible 2nd season in the NFL. Instead embrace it as an opportunity to steal him in your draft as a huge sleeper. His '06 season couldn't have been worse (only 1 frickin TD), and he was certainly one of the biggest busts of 2006. But Tampa Bay as a team was a pile of stinking garbage, and without an offensive line, a QB, or just about any other support you could imagine, it would have been almost impossible for Cadillac to do squat. Now you can get him at the very end of the 3rd round or beginning of the 4th. That's not bad value for a guy who could have a very good season if Tampa Bay as a whole improves (and they can't get worse).
Marshawn Lynch (RB) BUF - another guy to grab earlier in keeper leagues
Whenever you get a chance to draft a rookie RB who should be starting and getting most of the carries for a team right off the bat, it's worth taking the chance. His most serious competition for playing time will be Anthony Thomas, who has been a perennial bust for several different NFL teams now, and has the elusiveness of a paperweight. Lynch even offers more fantasy potential than the uber-hyped Adrian Peterson since Lynch will have less competition and will get more touches. In recent mock drafts, Lynch is going at the end of the 3rd round, which makes him a good #2 RB to pick up who should produce fine numbers this season. In keeper leagues, his value is much higher.
Jerious Norwood (RB) ATL
Although he proved he's capable of the big play and showed us a few glimpses of highlight-reel moves, Norwood only produced modest numbers while he was the clear #2 back to Warrick Dunn last season. But 2007 should provide us with a much better look at Jerious Norwood, we find it doubtful that Dunn will get most of the carries, and Dunn is entering training camp after back surgery that should slow him down (at least initially). Norwood does carry some risk....that risk would be that Dunn refuses to go away and like a zombie in a horror movie that just won't die, Dunn could continue to hog the show. But in the 5th round if your looking for a #3 RB with awesome potential, Norwood may be worth a shot, if you feel a bit froggy.
Chris Chambers (WR) MIA
After Chambers failed to even crack 700 yards last season, and only snagged 4 TD's he'll be taken off many of your opponents draft lists. But Chambers' failure to put up fantasy stud numbers isn't his fault. Instead it can be firmly blamed on the poor coaching and QB play that has plagued the Dolphins for several seasons now. Look for new Coach Cam Cameron and new QB Trent Green to re-discover this potential fantasy stud WR. Chambers should bounce back to well over 1,000 yds, and we like him for 10 scores. Currently his stock has plummeted to the 6th round in recent mock drafts, that makes him a steal if you can grab him in the 5th or 6th round.
Deion Branch (WR) SEA
People have forgotten about Branch. He missed the beginning of last season after a late trade from NE to Seattle, and it took him a while to get incorporated into the Seahawk offense. As a result, his numbers from 2006 were modest and he's slipping pretty far down on recent mock drafts (he's going around round 6). Although he won't be a fantasy super star, he should have a rebound year in Seattle where he will be the primary WR in their offense. Remember, Branch is a player that has never hit his full fantasy potential. In New England, they spread the ball around too much, and his first year in Seattle was kind of a mess for the Seahawks due to injuries to both Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. Now that Branch is "the man" at WR and everybody is back healthy Branch should have a career season.
We like Branch to put up about 1,200 yards and 8 or 9 TD's.
Braylon Edwards (WR) CLE
Edwards played fairly well last season considering #1 he had terrible QB's, #2 it was only his second year in the league, and #3 he was coming back from a torn ACL suffered at the end of the previous season. Remember he was a very high 1st round draft pick coming out of college for good reason and entering his 3rd season in the NFL, he should take off. Even though the QB's aren't expected to be great this season, the overall Browns offense should be improved. Joe Jurevicious will start the season out healthy, and Jamal Lewis at RB is an improvement (and looks to be re-invigorated after getting into improved shape over the offseason). The bottom line is that Edwards is a great value at the end of the 6th round, which is where he's currently being picked in mock drafts. Take a chance on him, it should pay off.
Greg Jennings (WR) GB
Jennings rookie season started out strong, but between adjusting to the pro game and trying to play through a badly sprained ankle that slowed him down for weeks, his numbers never really developed into anything of fantasy value. But we like him this year. Now that he has a year's starting experience under his belt and he's healthy, he should rebound with a strong 2nd season in the NFL. Remember, with Brett Favre slinging the ball around up there, there will be plenty of opportunities for him.
Currently Jennings is going around the 9th round of recent mock drafts. We feel that may be a bit early to take him, but if he slips into the 11th round, he'd be a heck of a late round flier to take a chance with, and could explode this season. If he looks good in preseason, then bump him up on your list by a couple of rounds.
Eric Johnson (TE) NO
Johnson is a great TE to take a shot at towards the end of your fantasy draft. A few years ago he was one of the best TE's in the league in terms of pass receptions and yardage, but since he played for San Fran during their dark years, he never got into the endzone much. Add him to the explosive New Orleans offense and he should be a nice weapon on your roster. Of course, there's a lot of talent in N.O. and only so many balls to go around, but at the end of your fantasys draft in round 14 or so, he's a great sleeper to pick up.
Randy McMichael (TE) STL
McRandy has always had the talent. He's really just an oversized WR out there who can also block a bit. But getting drafted by the Dolphins over the past few years has been the kiss of death for any WR or Tight End. Give the Miami coaches a good player on offense, and they'll find a way to misuse them. The one good coach that Miami had over the past few years was when Scott Linehan (now the coach of the Rams) was their O-coordinator. Randy will get more opportunities in the Rams offense then he had in Miami. Look for Randy to be a nice complimentary player for the Rams and he should break open a few times per game with a nice play. Think about it, will teams be able to stop Steven Jackson, while covering Tory Holt, Drew Bennett, and McMichael at the same time? Ahh, no, and even though McMichael is by no means the primary weapon in this offense, even the "scraps" that go to a TE should be good pickens.
Randy is going in about the 11th round in recent mock drafts and offers good sleeper potential at that point in the draft.
David Martin (TE) GB
Don't take this as an enthusiastic endorsement to draft Martin, but if you need a TE in the last round of your draft and you don't recognize any of the names out of the guys that are available, Martin's a good guy to take a late round flier on. He's been quietly overachieving in Green Bay for a couple of seasons now. Even though he shared the load with Bubba Franks. The Dolphins got him in free agency and should use him extensively this season. Both new QB Trent Green and new Coach Cam Cameron, have known reputations for throwing a lot of balls to the TE.
And now....our favorite section. The Busts! These guys are ticking time bombs to steer clear away from in your fantasy drafts.
Vince Young (QB) TEN
While his performance over the 2nd half of last season was impressive, his fantasy stats were only OK. Sure he did provide some solid points with his rushing yardage and TD's (never a bad thing). But his passing left a lot to be desired. Tennessee has sub-par WR's, and promises to have a mediocre running game at best in 2007. This season, we expect Young to take a step back and have some frustrating games where he'll struggle to get the ball to his receivers and his rushing stats will only go so far. He'll only be able to make spontaneous plays with his athleticism for so long before he's required to master the Titan's offense and get the ball to his WR's consistently. We agree that he has the talent to become a very good pro QB, but it will likely take another year or two. In the meantime, our advice is to let someone else in your fantasy league fall in love with his athletic potential, and just pick a QB who's more of a known commodity. We like Young as a potential #2 fantasy QB this season. Taking him as your #1 QB is placing a whole lot of faith in a guy who's started so few games in the NFL. If we're going to take a chance on a young QB we think Matt Leinart would make a better choice as a #2 fantasy QB.
Daunte Culpepper (QB) OAK
Ok, so this one's obvious. Culpepper's knee may or may not be healed at this point, but is brain sure doesn't look right when it comes to the internal clock that all QB's need to posess in regards to getting rid O the ball in a timely manner. For the last two disasterous seasons now, we've watched him drop back into coverage....and then get dropped. He shows no urgency to find receivers and appears to have the peripheral vision of a sloth when it comes to "sensing" pass rushers. Despite the fact that he's still a young man, and has been a fantasy stud in the past, any hope that he'll become a fantasy stud again in Oakland with their ragtag Offensive line, and under-achieving WR's is asking a bit too much. If you want to pick him up at least you won't have to burn a high draft pick to do so.
Jake Delhomme (QB) CAR
Ok, here's the deal, we really like Jake, and it's difficult for us not to put him on our sleeper list, but his numbers have been disappointing for the past two seasons, and there isn't any reason to think 2007 will be much different than 2006 for Jake. He still has a stud WR in Steve Smith, and a good running game, but beyond Smith the WR talent on the Panthers Roster is painfully slim, and they might be forced to start rookie Dewayne Jarrett before he's able to be a reliable weapon. Add in the fact that the Panthers added a very capable backup QB in David Carr leaves Delhomme less room for error than ever. Even if Delhommed plays well (which we hope is the case) chances are with a strong running game Delhomme's yardage per game should be modest. Really, we think Delhomme is a very good QB, and quite underrated, however, we wouldn't gamble a fantasy roster spot on him this season while there are too many better fantasy QB's. Keep him on your radar as a potential pickup, but we don't recommend targeting him in your draft.
Steve McNair (QB) BAL
Let's weigh the risk-to-reward here for a second. If he stays healthy this season (which is a HUGE if), then at best he's an average QB who has an occassional big game. More likely though if you were to waste a roster spot in him, you'd be getting a QB who put's up inconsistent fantasy numbers, and is the most likely player in the NFL to get injured and miss time. Why bother messing with him.
Alex Smith (QB) SF
All the trendy magazines and websites have this guy pegged as a big sleeper for 2007, but we're not buying it. San Francisco is rapidly improving, and Alex Smith will improve too, but we find no reason to think that he'll be anything more than an average to slightly above average QB in '07. San Fran is improving their WR talent, and the addition of Darrell Jackson is huge, but Smith has been around a couple of years and hasn't really impressed yet. He needs more firepower before he can turn the corner and establish himself as a good fantasy starter.
Matt Schaub (QB) HOU
We like Matt Schaub and we think he has a great future in the NFL. However, we don't think his first year in Houston will produce great numbers (or even good numbers). In all liklihood he'll be an average fantasy QB in '07, and it's doubtful he'll be any better than David Carr was in Houston last season. Houston needs to improve their WR situation a bit before any QB will become a fantasy commodity down there. Oddly enough a lot of people are considering him to be a sleeper this season, he may impress people in 2007 but it probably won't transalte into good fantasy numbers. Still we'll be
Some other Obvious busts to avoid at QB.....
Tarvaris Jackson (QB) Minn
Brody Croyle (QB) KC
Charlie Frye, Derrick Anderson, or Brady Quinn (QB) CLE
DeShaun Foster (RB) CAR
There isn't much reason to burn a draft pick on DeShaun Foster this season. He'll lose even more carries to 2nd year pro DeAngelo Williams, and Foster remains a huge injury risk.
Warrick Dunn (RB) ATL
Dunn has been an incredible overachiever his whole career and time and time again he beat the odds by turning in a strong fantasy season after it looked like he would lose his starting job. But 2007 has got to be the beginning of the end to his incredible ride. Although he turned in a strong season in '06, rushing for over 1,100 yards; we should expect to see his yardage diminish as more of his touches go to Jerious Norwood. Also consider that Dunn recently had back surgery for a ruptured disc shortly before the start of training camp. Really, you will be much, much better off by shoring up your RB position early in the draft than reaching for a player like Dunn in the mid-rounds of your draft.
Lendale White (RB) TEN
Don't count on White winning the starting job in Tennessee this season. In fact, don't count on him period. He appeared completely unmotivated in his rookie season and couldn't even establish himself as the Titans short yardage and goal-line back (a job that he should have instantly stepped into). Despite his physical talent, it's unlikely that he'll step up and assume a large role in with the Titans.
Joe Horn (WR) ATL
Same thing as last year when he was on our list, his time has passed and his deteriorating performance and inability to stay healthy has him as a player to avoid. He is currently averaging being picked in about the 10th round of most fantasy mock drafts. While that's far enough down the draft list that no-one will be burning a high pick on him, you'd be better off picking a younger WR with more potential.
Terry Glenn (WR) DAL
Poor Terry can't stay healthy for long these days, and while he still can play well, there are better players to fill your roster with in the middle part of the draft (which is where Terry Glenn is being drafted in).